No. 1 - L.A. Clippers: Blake Griffin, PF Oklahoma
When you look at need for the Clips, they could really use either a versatile playmaker (Rubio) who could distribute the ball to their big men, or an efficient scorer (Harden) who could make the weight on Baron Davis' shoulders a bit lighter. But in this Draft, screw need. Griffin is the prize in a one-man draft class -- a strong bodied and extremely athletic power forward, who despite being measured at only 6'8, should be able to be a star in the paint for years to come. No GM is dumb enough to pass on Griffin. Not even Mike Dunleavy. Oh, wait...
No. 2 - Memphis Grizzlies: Ricky Rubio, PG Spain
I have a feeling that Rubio is going No. 2, but it probably won't be to the Grizz. Memphis could really use a point guard to team up with the talented young group of Mayo, Gay, Arthur and Gasol, but it seems like Memphis isn't sold on the Spanish import. The other factor that will play into a trade situation here is the talent of the other top-3 player in the Draft, Hasheem Thabeet. At best he will be a defensive specialist like a Camby or Dalembert, and should be drafted no where near second overall. I think Memphis will realize they're not crazy about either Rubio or Thabeet and look to trade the pick for a veteran player to add experience to the young Grizz.
No. 3 - OK City Thunder: Hasheem Thabeet, C Connecticut
This is an absolutely perfect spot for Thabeet. The Thunder already have a dangerous young nucleus of scorers in Jeff Green, Russel Westbrook, and "The Plastic Man" Kevin Durant, so the offensively challenged Thabeet won't have to focus too much on putting the ball in the hole. He should drastically improve the center position for the Thunder from day one, and bring a tough defensive mindset to a very soft team. As an overall product, Thabeet is definitely a project. He'll take a few years to become even somewhat reliable on offense, but luckily the Thunder have the talent and time to take the gamble. You can't teach 7'3. And Durant will probably score about 40 points a game next year anyway.
No. 4 - Sacramento Kings: James Harden, SG Arizona State
The Kings need to go to church more. That, or they need to start paying David Stern under the table. Poor Sacramento finished with the worst record in the NBA, winning the Blake Griffin lottery, then somehow fell all the way to fourth. Not getting Griffin is a tough break, but not landing No. 2 or 3 might be a blessing in disguise. I'm not a Rubio supporter - he's too skinny, too unathletic, and his jumpshot is awful. Plus, the last few foreign born players have been colossal busts - Jianlian, Gallinari, Bargnani. And Thabeet, despite all his height and potential, will never be a star. So the Kings go with Harden, the most NBA-ready player outside of Griffin. Based on productvity he should probably go N0. 2, but NBA teams fall in love with drafting potential instead of productivty. Harden could wind up being this years Brandon Roy, though he's not as athletic as Roy and won't be as good. Still, he's a dangerous offensive weapon and should be an impact scorer for a team with few reliable option.
No. 5 - Washington Wizards: Jordan Hill, PF Arizona
This is an interesting situation because, if healthy, the Wiz are no where near the fifth worst team in the league. Arenas should be back at full habachi strength next season, and Brandon Haywood will be back as well. Throw in Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison and you've got a playoff team. Hill seems like a good option here because he's an athletic, high energy guy, who might turn into one of the top-three players in this Draft. They have a center in Haywood and and a power forward in Jamison, but neither guy is a tradtional back to the basket scorer. There is also the chance of trading one of those highly paid starters as well, so that could open up a spot for Hill. I doubt Arenas or Butler will be traded, so the possibilites of Jrue Holiday or Brandon Jennings seems unlikely here.
No. 6 - Minnesota T-Wolves: Jrue Holiday, PG/SG UCLA
Holiday seems to be this years Russel Westbrook. He didn't really wow anyone during the season with his numbers, but because of his size, athleticsm, and potential to play point guard, he's shooting up draft boards. The T-Wolves could snag him here because they don't really have one glaring hole they need to fix, so they opt to go for the most intriguing player in the Draft - and the one who could end up being a Jrue star in the league. Sorry, I couldn't help it.
No. 7 - Golden Star Warriors: Tyreke Evans, PG/SG Memphis
People are saying Jennings goes here, but I think Evans will be a guy who starts garnering more attention as the Draft nears and winds up going higher than suspected. He was a big time recruit but had a rollercoaster freshman year at Memphis, so scouts are unsure what they'll get at the next level. On potential alone, he's right there with Griffin and DeMar DeRozan. Evans is a versatile combo guard who teams would love to turn into a point guard, but most likely will play the two because of his score-first mentality. The Warriors already have Monta Ellis, so Evans would be a nice compliment, whereas Jennings is too much of the same player.
No. 8 - New York Knicks: Stephen Curry, PG/SG Davidson
Outside of Griffin going No.1 this seems like the surest thing in the Draft. Coach D is looking for a high scoring point guard who can run his seven second offense like Nash did back with the Suns. While Curry isn't a true point guard, he'll probably have to play there cause of his size. The kid shoots lights out and will love flying up and down the court in New York, but he could wind up being a bust along the lines of J.J. Redick, who can't seem to pry himself off of Orlando's bench.
No. 9 - Toronto Raptors: DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF USC
With Chris Bosh halfway out the door, they might look for a inside scorer. Wait, there are none. Instead, the Raps go with the best player on the board and the one kid who might outshine Griffin in a few years. DeRozan is dripping with potential, and could end up being a psuedo-Kobe, the player he studies religously and models his game after. Double D won't be an impact player his rookie year, as his offensive skills lack polish. Still, his athleticsm is jaw dropping and GM's love his Kobe infatuation. He could end up going higher, but he won't fall out of the top 10.
No. 10 - Milwaukee Bucks: Brandon Jennings, PG Italy
The Bucks need a lot of help and could go in a bunch of different directions. Charlie V and Ramon Sessions both might not be back, which will leave huge gaps at the point guard and power forward spots. Earl Clark or Austin Daye are possiblities, though that seems unlikely due to the Joe Alexander dibolical last tear. DeJuan Blair could fit next to Andrew Bogut, but No. 10 is too high for a player like Blair. That really only leaves the point guard position. Jonny Flynn might fit better than Jennings because he's a tough kid who would be a playmaker for shooters Richard Jefferson and Michael Redd. But Jennings has too much potential and intrigue for him to fall any lower than No. 10, and the Bucks would love a flamboyant personality to excite the their dwindling fan base.
No. 11- New Jersey Nets: DeJuan Blair, PF Pittsburgh
This probably won't happen because Blair's lack of height is a serious scare to most GM's, but how awesome would a Lopez/Blair frontcourt look. Lopez, the tall, lean center who plays with finesse and polish, and Blair, the brutish gorilla-man who bangs and breaks bodies. A more likely option is a successor to Vince Carter, like Daye or Clark, who could play along Devin Harris for the next 10 years. I think Blair will be the Darrel Arthur of this year. A team could fall in love with his style of play and say"screw it" and take him really high, or he could slip to around 20.
No. 12 - Charlotte Bobcats: Earl Clark, SF/PF Louisville
The Bobcats are close to being a playoff team, and Clark could help them at their vulnerable shooting guard/small forward spot. They have Emeka Okafor and Boris Diaw in the frontcourt, and Raymond Felton and D.J. Augustin at the point, so a swing player is the only way to go here. Clark is really talented and can play three positions, but small forward seems the most likely position for him. If he can develop his jumper, Clark could be a steal here at No. 12.
No. 13 - Indiana Pacers: BJ Mullens, C Ohio State
This really could end up being a number of people. Daye might be a more likely choice, but they already have a wealth of guard in TJ Ford, Brandon Rush, Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy. And Troy Murphy basically just shoots threes. So Naptown goes with the biggest question mark of the draft - the 7 foot Mullens who could have been a top-five player right out of high school, but struggled mightily in his lone season at Ohio State. They already invested a pick in Roy Hibbert, but I see some team taking a shot at Mullens' potential and Indiana needs a big man. He could end up being the next Andrew Bynum, or the next Greg Ostertag.
No. 14 - Phoenix Suns: Jonny Flynn, PG Syracuse
R.I.P. Phoenix Suns, it was fun while it lasted. The high-flying Suns led by Nash, Amare, Joe Johnson, and The Matrix are a thing of the passed. Johnson fled to the Hawks, Trix was traded for Shaq - which was like trying to fit a square peg in a round hole - and Nash is on his NBA deathbed. Their time as a dominant team in the West is long gone, so it's time for Steve Kerr to start rebuilding. They won't be able to fully move on until Shaq and Nash retire, but they can get a head start by drafting their replacements. James Johnson could be an option at power forward, but I think the Suns will take Flynn, a quick, tough little spark plug who could be the point guard of the future.
No. 15 - Detroit Pistons: James Johnson, PF Wake Forest
Like the Suns, the Pistons dynasty is over. The Billups-Iverson deal was a complete disaster, and the rest of their lineup in getting old. Outside of Stuckey, the roster seems to be in flux - Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton might be traded to contenders for younger pieces. Daye is still on the board and could be the choice if the trades actually go through, but Johnson is probably the safest best for a team that needs to start rebuilding their roster.
No. 16 - CHICAGO BULLS: Terrance Williams, SG/SF Louisville
The Bulls, once again, are a young team on the rise. Bizarre how that occurrence can happen twice in a four year span, but it has. New GM Gar Foreman has his hands full this offseason -between resigning Ben Gordon and looking for trades involving Kirk Hinrich, Ty Thomas and Joakim Noah, he'll be a busy man. Because of the uncertainty of their roster, Williams looks like the only player who would be a good option no matter what. He's one of the most versatile players in the Draft, stuffs the stat sheet, and plays tough defense. If Gordon leaves he can play shooting guard, fill in at the point if Hinrich gets traded, and relieve the oft injured Deng at small forward. The knock against Williams is his worth ethic, and some scouts said he looked smaller than they thought he was at the pre-draft workouts, but he still is an intriguing player with lots of potential. If Gordon or Hinrich gets traded before the Draft, they might go for Wayne Ellington or Jeff Teague - players who could replace the three-point shooting of BG.
No. 17 - Philadelphia 76er's: Gerald Henderson, SG Duke
The Sixers had a disappointing year, and the Elton Brand Experiment was a complete bust. If Brand is healthy next season, the Sixers should quickly become a playoff team again. They have a talented small forward in Andre Iguodala and a solid point guard in Andre Miller, so they should draft the best player available in Henderson, who also fills there need at the shooting guard position. He's a bit undersized, but is a complete player and should serve as an improvement over Willie Green.
No. 18 - Minnesota Timberwolves: Austin Daye, SF Gonzaga
Daye could come off the board well earlier than this, so if he's here it will be impossible to pass on his value. Daye is a lanky swing player with loads of athleticsm and potential, so it's very likely a GM could gamble on him somewhere in the lottery. Early in the year he was a top-10 pick, but didn't perform well most of the year and he slid down draft boards. But he impressed teams at the pre-draft camp and his stock as been soaring as of late.
No. 19 - Atlanta Hawks: Eric Maynor, PG VCU
Maynor is well known for leading his upstart Rams over the heavily favored Dukies a couple years ago, then almost doing it again this year against UCLA. He's an older, more experienced player who lacks the upside of PG's like Flynn and Jennings, but he's a great game manager who is a tenacious driver on offense. With Mike Bibby's future an uncertainty, the Hawks will look to draft a floor leader to distribute the ball to Atlanta's talented young scorers. Darren Collison or Ty Lawson could be other options here.
No. 20 - Utah Jazz: Wayne Ellington, SG North Carolina
If any of the Jazz three big men - Boozer, Millsap, Okur - decide to bid adeu to Salt Lake City, they could opt to draft Gani Lawal or Tyler Hansbrough. If they stay, look for them to find a potential long-term running mate for superstar point guard Deron Williams. They already have Ronnie Brewer, but he's proven to be more valuable as a small forward because of his length and athleticsm. Ellington may be the best shooter in the Draft, but he might also be gone be now depending on what roster changes teams make before the Draft. If he's here, it seems like a perfect fit for the Jazz, and a Williams/Ellington backcourt could become one of the leagues best.
No. 21 - New Orleans Hornets: Gani Lawal, PF Georgia Tech
The Hornets are in shambles after that first round beatdown at the hands of Denver. Chris Paul seemed to have them on the right track, but they clearly aren't ready to compete with the West's elite. If New Orleans decides to keep the current roster in tact, Lawal is the best choice because he's the most talented big man available and could add depth to a fairly weak front court. Lawal is very raw, but he's tall and athletic, and could be a star down the road. If they decide to blow up the team and start over with CP3 as the building block, big time shooters like Chase Budinger or Jeff Teague will be the way to go.
No. 22 - Dallas Mavericks: Chase Budinger, SF Arizona
At this point, impact players are hard to find, but Budinger might just be a diamond in the rough. The supremely gifted swing man has been penciled in the lottery for three years now, but his stock took a hit this year when his development took a step backwards. The current Mavs team with Dirk and Jason Kidd at the helm is about over, and Cuban will be looking to find some new talent for the future. Budinger, with his white skin and blonde hair and sweet three-pont stroke, might be Dirk's eventual successor.
No. 23 - Sacramento Kings: Patty Mills, PG/SG St. Mary's
Ty Lawson is probably the better player, but every year a team will reach for a small school player in the first round. Last year San Antonio took George Hill and he turned out to be a great value pick. Mills might turn out to be the same kind of player. He's one of those tweener guards, a guy who is a shooting guard in a point guards body, but putting him on the court with Harden will force him to pass more. The Aussie and Harden could be the King's backcourt of the future.
No. 24 - Portland Trail Blazers: Ty Lawson, PG North Carolina
The Blazers continue their unbelievble Draft success by nabbing Lawson, a proven winner who might have been the fastest player in college ball. Portland has an unfair amount of young talent on their roster, and they'll probably make a trade before or on draft day to shore up their rotation. But if they don't, they will take a point guard, and Lawson is a steal at No. 24.
No. 25 - Oklahoma City Thunder: Jeff Teague, PG/SG Wake Forest
Man is this team going to be good. OK City already got the defensive enforcer they desperately needed, now they get a flame throwing combo guard to pair up with Westbrook. He's small and one dimensional, but if he lives up to his talent we're looking at the second coming of Ben Gordon. A lineup of Westbrook, Teague, Durant, Green, and Thabeet is just downright scary.
No. 26 - CHICAGO BULLS: Tyler Hansbrough, PF North Carolina
If the Bulls decide to go for a guard with their first pick, this is the only desination for Hansbrough. He's the best available post player for a team that hasn't had a true post player since Elton Brand left town. Chicago already has talented young big men in Thomas and Noah, but those guys lack polish and are a couple years from being reliable inside scorers. Hansbrough's toughness and soft touch around the basket is the perfect compliment to Thomas' and Noah's athleticism. Most people, including myself, aren't big believers in Hansbrough being an NBA player. But Hansbrough measured almost 6'9 at the pre-draft camp - surprisingly - and has a great work ethic and drive to get better. At worst he'll be a solid bench player. At best, if he improves his mid range jumper and adds some muscle to his frame, he could be a fringe all-star. Which is saying something. I hate Tyler Hansbrough.
No. 27 - Memphis Grizzlies: Omri Casspi, SF Israel
One of the uspoken rules of the NBA Draft is that every year a team has to waste a first round pick on a foreign player who will never actually play in the NBA. I don't know why, no one knows why. But it happens every year, and it's going to happen again. In 2009, Casspi gets to be the lucky fellow who gets his unprouncable named called, which in turns leaves 80% of America saying out loud in shock, "Israel has a basketball team!?" Yes, they do. And much like this ridiculous rule, I haven't the slighest idea why.
No. 28- Minnesota T-Wolves: Sam Young, SF Pittsburgh
Unlike the NFL Draft, which can actually stay semi interesting until about the third round because of football's knack for finding great players in the later rounds, the NBA Draft is pretty much over after the lottery. When you get to the late twenties, teams are really scraping the barrel to find players who can contribute. Young is big, athletic wing player, but so are most small forwards in the NBA. He's also 23 years old - and looks 43 - so his upside is limited. Still, he's probably the best player available here.
No. 29 - Los Angelos Lakers: Derrick Brown, SF Xavier
Brown is a combo forward with good back to the basket moves. He likely won't make the jump right to the NBA because of the Lakers already stacked rotation. Store him in the D league for a couple years and have him improve his strength.
No. 30 - Cleveland Cavaliers: Taj Gibson, PF USC
This clearly isn't where the Cavs are going to improve this offseason. They need to seek trades, and fast, before LeBron decides to back up his bags and move on to bigger and better things. But here at No. 30, they get Gibson, another hope to fill the need for an inside scorer. JJ Hickson is a work in progress, and Gibson will most likely be the same.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
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